Prediction based trade no 20: US market

Book a lOSS OF $ 50 in today’s trade.

 

Book profits on IBM May 120 call option purchased at $3.3 at price limit of $4( see previous trade)

Prediction based Trade 20: US market April 20

Mini Dow ($5) trading at 12865 ( +39) . Dow 30 index is up 50 points.

 

Sell one lot of mini Dow futures at limit price of 12875 ( if available in next  one hour) that is  before .850 pm Indian time or 11.20 am US eastern time. Likely to become  profitable before 1.30 pm as per US time before FED policy announcement. Stop loss when mini dow $5 futures hits 12885 after purchase   

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based Trade 19: further update

May 5200 call premium limit of Rs 140 also met.

 

Now options portfolio consists of 7 call options 5200 at average price of  142.86 to be carried over till rest of this week or till further update

 

 

Prediction based trade 19: update

Limit price of May 5200 call options of Rs 150 reached. Buy next 5 calls options at Rs 140 ( not 143)

 

 

Prediction based trade April 30,2008 Indian market

1. Nifty up around 26 points at 11.35 am with Nifty May 5200 Call at premium of 154 and Nifty May 5200 put at premium of 123

 

 

 

Buy 2 Calls at premium of 150 Limit, 5 call options at Limit price of  Rs 143 and hold till rest of week or till further update

 

Buy 3 puts at Rs 110 limit price and square off towards end of day with stop loss of Rs 90

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based Trade update 17: US market

Please refer to yesterday’s prediction based trade recommendation.

 

IBM May 120 Call option at limit price of $ 3.3. This price was reached with day low of $3.1.currently trading up at premium of $3.8. do not book profits.

 

Buy another lot of the same at premium limit price of  $ 3.1

 

(2) Sell 1 mini $ 5dow futures at current value ( now dow is down about 40 points) at 9.15 pm Indian time )( Note 1 point tick in futures gives a $5 change)

 

Maximum loss $ 70. Protect profits. square off today

No Prediction for Indian markets today April 29,2008

No prediction will be posted today for Indian markets

Prediction based Trade 18: US market April 28

Buy IBM May 120 call option (last traded premium $3.4)) at $ 3.3 ( one lot of 100)  Hold till mid week or till further update

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based Trade 16: US market

Book profits on Dow futures from Friday trade. Profit  US $ 250

 

 

Approximate profits are $ 250)= Rs 10000). This is based on assumption that only Mini Dow ($5) was purchased ( Dow Index call options it seems, are not traded ) . Trade was recommended when dow was down 80 points last Friday ,very close to day’s low.Dow future in range of 65 points( implying maximum profit of 65*$5= $ 325 ) we assume only $250 profit could be made as we book profits today.

 

 

On United technologies  trade , a small profit of  $15 made.

 

 

IBM trade remained unexecuted as price target was not met.

Prediction based trade 17: final update

On Friday and Monday trade premium of Rs 165 reached and hence profits booked at Rs 163.

 

Total profits  on 8 lots of nifty puts= (8*50)* ( 163-147)- ( 3* 8*50)= 6400- 1200=5200 rupees

 

Please note average brokerage is Rs 3 per lot.

 

 

Note: un-booked Profits on Dow futures ( see trade no 16)  is about US$ 250 minimum which may be booked on positive trade in morning hours

Prediction based trade 17: update

Premium of Rs 160 has been reached on Friday ( 4 lots of nifty may 5100 puts at rs 159) and todas’ trade ( 4 lots of Nifty may 5100 puts at Rs 135) but no profits to be booked unless premium breaches 165 and from there protect profits at Rs 163.

Weekly( april 28-May 2) Stock market prediction -selected world markets

Please note most key markets may undergo correction around mid week ( read Tuesday Wednesday)

Chinese (Shanghai Index): Buy on correction early in week as upward trend for most of the week

Nikkie 225 ( Japan): Volatile week. Sell index till mid week

Hang Seng: A week of correction till mid week. Sell Index

FTSE 100: Buy on correction today and hold till Thursday

Dow 30:Upward trend. Better to buy than sell

Sensex: Upward move after a mid week correction (see trade strategy no 17 below carried over from last week)

Closing values for last week for various indices given below

Shanghai Composite	3,557.749 Apr 26
Hang Seng	25,516.78 Apr 25
Nikkie 225	13863.47 April 25
FTSE 100 Dow 30	6091.40 April 25 12891. 86 April 25
Sensex	17125.98 April 25,

Dow 30

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader. Weekly prediction for world markets being attempted for first time. Table above shows closing value for some of the world markets predicted

Trade update no 17

See Friday prediction for holding Put May 5100 options till mid week.

 

4 lots purchased at Rs 159. as recommended another  4 lots purchased at ( assume) Rs 135  compared to best price/premium  available this morning  of Rs 130. Average price/ premium per lot is  147. Profit should be protected if  premium reaches rs 160.

 

 

See weekly prediction for selected world markets to be posted soon

Trade 16: further update

Buy IBM 120 May call options lot size 100 ( 1 lot) at limit premium of 3.49. currently at 3.8.Hold till next week at least

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Trade no 16: Update

See previous prediction. Time remaining 2hours 10 minutes for close of US market

 

 

Buy 30 IBM at $ 122 instead of limit price of $ 121.50 for next week

 

 

prediction based Trade no 16 US market April 25,2008

Dow 30 down about 80 points nearly 2 hours in to trade today

 

 

Buy 1 lot  Dow 30 June strike price 12000 call options till  next week

 

Buy Unitech technologies  50 shares at Share 72.67 a share for today till afternoon with loss limit of $1 pr share

 

Buy IBM 30 shares if available at US 121.50 currently at 122.97 hold till next week

 

 

Disclaimer: All risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based Trade 15: Indian market April 25- april 30 2008

Buy 4 lots of Nifty May 5100 Put Option at current premium of Rs 159. Buy another 4 lots of the same on Monday if market opens strongly positive. Hold till Wednesday or when profits appear

Note: On Monday market may correct strongly from a positive opening or bounce back during the day from a correction. Either way above strategy should yield profits

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Trade 14 Indian market Profits booked

Premium rose shortly after purchase premium of Rs 180 to atleast 193 when Nifty/sensex fell after 12 noon. Profit booked of rs 2200 ( under profit protection rule) for four lots of Nifty may 5100 put option

Prediction based Trade no 14: Indian market

Buy 4 lots May Put option 5100 at current premium of Rs 180 when sensex is up 160 points at 11.52 am. Buy another three lots if premium falls by Rs 15 per lot.( i.e when market rises further today)  Hold till middle of next week or when profits appear on these positions.

 

Note market may be volatile for rest of the day

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Trade no 13: Losses booked -Indian market

For prediction yesterday, maximum loss possible of Rs 1600 including brokerage losses are booked.

 

Interestingly the premium fell over Rs 29 from 201 to low of Rs 172 while Nifty fell just by the same margin or less

 

 

prediction based trade 13: indian market april 24,2008

buy nifty 5000 may call options 1 lot at rs 195 or less (currenlt at rs 201 at 11.55 am)

2 nd lot at at 180 or less


exit today

maximum loss limit rs 1000 per lot

disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based trade no 12: Indian market

Buy 100 shares of infosys tech at Limit price of Rs 1560 ( currently at sr 1585) for short term

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Prediction based Trade no 11: Profits booked ( notional)

As dow 30 sanks nearly 100 points during intra day trade on april 21 and nasdaq 15 points ( at the lowest point of the day), under our rule of “protecting profits”, small profit is booked on dow 30 (sell trade of Friday) and minor losses on nasdaq (sell trade on Friday).

 

 

Note: Losses on Indian market  prediction are not considered as it was a not a “live trade” prediction even as we ignore phenomenal profits that would have been possible  from “ Bull week” prediction for US market last week- for the same reason

 

Call 09911698256,09312039121

 

Email future@ckal.mobi

Prediction based Trade 11: US market april 18,2008

dow 30 up 186 points Nasdaq up 46 points about one hour into trade Sell 1 lot of dow 30 options/futures sell 1 lot of nasdaq options/futures hold till early next week. if profitable book profits today in afternoon disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader Note : our update of US weekly prediction in previous posts

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IPL cricket predictions based on Tarot cards

IPL Cricket Predictions Teams likely to reach semi-finals: Deccan chargers, Kolkata, Delhi Daredevil while fourth team could be between Chennai and Kings XI Punjab Teams likely to reach finals: Deccan chargers, Kolkata with outside chance for Delhi daredevils Possible Winner: Deccan chargers, Kolkata knight riders with outside chance for Delhi daredevil Email: future@ckal.mobi

Intra day prediction indian market april 17,2008

(this prediction is given before market opening)..   Short nifty if sensex opens strong and is over 400 points around 11-11.30 am as sharp dip is expected in afternoon. This position canbe held till early next week. Market may rise again in late afternoon hence for day trade keep trailing stop loss to protect profits

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weekly Predictiion of US market-trade 9

Our stand on the weekly outlook for US market seems vindicated as nasdaq has risen 2.12. % today itself ( see Trade 9) though no trade for weekly purposed could be executed as price target was not met.

 

Profits could be booked now and again re-enter as market could see new highs in remaining days of this  week

Trade no 10: profits booked

Today’s order for 6 lots of Nifty April put option 4900 at Rs 63 ( 3 lots) and Rs 55 ( 3 lots). Only order at Rs 63 got executed. Profits booked at Rs 75. Profit after brokerage (300) = (3*50)( 75-63) -300=1500

 

Please note IPl cricket predictions will be posted by 17 th April,2008

prediction based trade no 10: update

Premium has risen from rs 63 to rs 77 at close to 3 pm on nifty put april option 4900. Keep stop loss at 75. book profits today

 

 

 

 

prediction based trade 10: update

Purchase of three lots of nifty April put option 4900 triggered at rs 63 just after 12 noon. ( 3*50)

Exit these trades towards end of day today even if stop loss is not triggered off

Prediction based Trade no 10 Indian market: Update

Purchase of three lots of nifty April put option 4900 triggered at rs 63 just after 12 noon. ( 3*50)

 

Exit these trades towards end of day  today even if stop loss is not triggered off

predicion based trade 10: Indian market April 16 2008

Nifty at 11.50 am at 4928

Buy 3 lots of Nifty Put april option at Rs 63 and another 3 lots at rs 55 premium as market may slide in late afternoon but recover from day’s low. Stop loss at 50 for all lots



Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

prediction based Trade 10: Indian stock market aprl 16,2008

 

Nifty at 11.50 am at 4928

 

Buy  3 lots of Nifty Put option at Rs 63  and another 3 lots at rs 55  premium as market may slide in late afternoon but recover from day’s low. Stop loss at 50 for all lots

 

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

prediction based Trade 9 U S market april 14,2008

Buy Nasdaq call options(preferably)/ futures

 

1 lot when nasdaq touches  2267

2^nd lot when touches 2257 or less today. hold  till mid week ( Tuesday-Wednesday)

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

trade 8: us market exit at no loss

Exit today’s sell position at no loss.

 

But take long position  (buy Nasdaq futures upon any correction in late afternoon) for the week as mentioned earlier in weekly prediction

 

 

prediction for the week US market april 14-18,2008

Please previous post for today’s prediction

For the week april 14-18,2008

at some point position need to be reversed by buying nasdaq futures/options for the week as good rise expected by mid week

Note: IPL cricket prediction may be posted in next few days

prediction based trade 8: us stock market april 14,2008

Sell two lots of mini sized dows futures. Square off likely 60-90 minutes before trade ( subject to profit protection strategy)

Protect profits. Stop loss if Dow rises by over 70 points currently  up +1 points

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader.

Prediction based Traders "MF" updated

Traders’ Mutual Funds Statistics
Today’s Prediction based Trade ( Indian market)	Market closed
Today Prediction based Trade ( US market)	Market closed
Last Trade ( Indian market)	April 8 squared April 9
Last Trade ( US market)	April 10
Initial Investment	10 lacs
Return so far ( since fund inception April 1,2008)	After 30 trades
Return on assets for last full month	N.A
Total trades in Indian market since April 1,2008	2
Total trades in US market since April 1,2008	5
Percentage of profitable trades ( Indian market)	Stats after 30 trades
Percentage of profitable trades ( US market)	Stats after 30 trades
Total assets as of date	10.146 lacs
Remarks	Out of 5 trades in US, 2 trade orders did not  get executed

 

Trade 7:prediction based traders' mutual fund US market

As predicted (and traded) the US index dow 30 fell over 90 points from the peak, about 75 points from the point when we made the  "dow- 30 sell " call (when Dow 30 was up over 101 points). Profit would be approx Rs 2500. Holding the same position today would have given much more profits. However as no "Hold" call was given , we assume profit was booked yesterday itself. The stats on our Traders MF will be posted this weekend

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Prediction based Trade 7 US market prediction April 10

Dow 30 now up  over 101 points Sell mini Do w 30 futures with stop loss when dow 30 rises another 50 points.

Protect any profits. Sharp possibly temporary fall likely in afternoon

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

Book Profits Trade 5 ( april 9 trade)

Book profits as per previous posting on yesterday "Buy" trade call when dow was down 100 points in late afternoon yesterday

 

Today's gain 100 points on dow . Gain of about Rs 3900 approx

 

Trade 6 could not be executed as dow never fell 60-80 points

 

A sell call may be given today.

 

 

Prediction based Trade 5& 6: Us markets April 10

yesterday on this blog  the trade recommended (trade 5) – (buy Dow future on 100 points correction in last hour trade) would have been triggerred as dow 30  hit a low of over 100 points in last trade hour and starting today with over  fifty points advantage

 

Buy another lot of Dow futures/options(trade 6 our "MF" if Dow 30 opens with a 60-80 in negative as market will rise sharply form any negative opening .Market may fall steeply later.( A Buy Put option call may be given later)

 

Square off both trade 5 an 6 within next 80 minu tes. if Dow opens in green today   book profits on yesterday's trade but do not execute trade 6 as it is dependent on a  negative market opening

 

 

 

 

 

disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

 

Trade 5: Prediction based Trade US market ( April 9-10)

(Conditional )Prediction based Trade 5

Buy Mini Sized Dow (one lot) in the last onehour of trade if dow falls over 100 points.Hold till tomorrow.In the last hour of trade today Dow index could touch much lower values than seen so far today

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader/investor

Prediction based Traders' Mutual Fund-Stats

Traders’ Mutual Funds Statistics
Today’s Prediction based Trade ( Indian market)	No prediction today*
Today Prediction based Trade ( US market)	TBA
Last Trade ( Indian market)	April 8 squared April 9
Last Trade ( US market)	April 8
Initial Investment	10 lacs
Return so far ( since fund inception April 1,2008)	Stats after 30 trades
Return on assets for last full month	N.A
Total trades in Indian market since April 1,2008	2
Total trades in US market since April 1,2008	1+1(not executed)
Percentage of profitable trades ( Indian market)	Stats after 30 trades
Percentage of profitable trades ( US market)	Stats after 30 trades
Total assets as of date	10.08 lacs
Remarks	* today only square off order was given for april 8 trade on Nifty call option

Note Trade 1 on US market is ignored in the stats here. Though Buy Put options call was given when dow was down 25-35 points in morning which fell 100 points and hence under our MF rules it would have been a profitable trade. However lack of information of Dow 30 option premium makes it difficult to calculate profits hence it is ignored.

Trade 4 on US market given yesterday was conditional ( buy only if Dow falls 100-130 points)

which could not be executed. Total assets are adjusted for brokerage charges

trade 3: book profits in nifty options

Yesterday trade 3: nifty call options (4800) purchased at rs 95 or less. Book profits at Rs 119( current premium when nifty is up 30 points in green)

Total profit on 3 lots

=(3*50)*(119-95)-Rs 600(brokerage)=Rs 3000

Trade 4 (conditional) : prediction based US market april 8,2008

Dow 30 down about 40 points after one hour of market opening

 

Buy mini sized Dow 30  April options ( please check premium at that point or buy Dow futures) when dow falls between 100-130 points which is possible before 12-1 pm  as sharp rise possible after that . Dow 30 may fall  again at close of trade

 

Once profitable protect profits with trailing stop loss. Options can be held till tomorrow as sharp rise is possible on Wednesday april 9,

 

 

Disclaimer: all risk to be borne by trader

 

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