Re: Bear market in 2008 and more trouble in store in 2009?

Please read our prediction for Bear market in 2008 made in dec 2007 .Click on the link.Bear market in 2008?( read specially the last section prediction for second half of the year 2008). ( a prediction that we also forgot!!!!)

 

Based on the reading, it is possible that 2009 may be volatile movements of the sort seen in 2008 and further corrections to lower levels than seen in 2008.

 

 

PLEASE NOTE OTHER DAY/WEEKLY PREDICTIONS WILL REMAIN  SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHR NOTICE

 

Re:Predictions and articles

NO NEW PREDICTIONS WILL APPEAR TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

 

 

 

update: trade 106: Predictions for the week- dec 1-5

Nifty 2900 call premium at rs 52 with day lowest so far at around 41. Add three lots -1 at current premium, 2 at limit price of 40 and last one at 35.

 

PS: pls note in view of official recognition of US being  in recession these predictions are counter to market sentiments and involve higher risk
 

 

 

 

 

Market likely to bounceback by midweek ( tuesday or wednesday)

 

Buy 3 nifty 2900 calls at current premium of rs 70 and may add further calls options on correction on dec 2.

 

protect profits after premium advantage of rs 15 per lot( after brokerage)

 

 

Prediction for month of december 08:Indian stock market

Based on Tarot cards, cards indicate that broadly markets will see sharp correction and bounceback indicating V formation for monthly chart. Much (not all ) of this bounceback may be concentrated towards end of december- also in mid phase of the month markets will show tendency to bounceback.

 

Overall building short position in first ten days  and holding till 3rd week may give good profits.

 

disclaimer: all risk to be borne by traders.

Trade 107: prediction for week dec 1-5 US market

Weekly prediction for US market like Indian market is showing a mixed and volatile pattern.( US market yet to open today) with possibility of strong intra day correction towards end of week

 

US market is likely to recover from any correction at least till mid week with Nasdaq(1535 last friday closing)   likely to outperform Dow 30 (8829)

 

Trade 107: Buy maximium of  2 nasdaq call options , each at correction of  40 points.Positions to be protected/squared off before Thursday or if gain per lot is 30 points at least ( keep trailing loss of 6 points)

 

NOTE: December Month outlook Prediction for Indian( and perhaps US market) will appear later

Trade 106: prediction for week dec 1-5 Indian market

Market likely to bounceback by midweek ( tuesday or wednesday)   Buy 3 nifty 2900 calls at current premium of rs 70 and may add further calls options on correction on dec 2.   protect profits after premium advantage of rs 15 per lot( after brokerage)

PS: due to an error this prediction has appeared few minutes after its posting on other two blogs

Predictions and articles

The follwing articles and predictions will appear/start appearing on mentioned sites/blogs

1. Predictions based trading fund trading only nifty/sensex equities ( buying/shorting) will start. It will be both prediction based and information based on www.kal.in and www.ckal.in

2. Can Terrrorist acts be predicted astrologically - an analysis with special reference to Indian situation( on www.ckal.in )

3.Economic Policy for preventing/countering terrorist acts ( on www.IndiaConsulting.in )

Because of data collection requirements articles (2 and 3) may be take time to appear and may be in short series format

Review: Predictions for the week- nov 24-28 US market

The prediction for the week was

 

"...This week market likely to correct  steeply mid week with possibility of bounceback towards end of week....."
 

 

Review: See the chart above ignoring the last friday section. The week was truncated due to Thursday and part Friday holiday .Market corrected on intra day basis on tuesday and wednesday ( from point of Put purchase) and then bounced back sharply from wednesday lows. Correction was however expected to be sharper .
 

Profit booked-trade 104 : Predictions for the week- nov 24-28 US market

dow hit at low of 8311 today( so far after 3 hours of trade) down 168 points.hence stop loss hit at 8341. With average purchase level of dow puts at 8435.Profit on three lots is $707.5 (for our fixed rate of $1 =40) at rs  28300 or Rs 34668( at 1 $ =49)

Nov 26 update-trade 104 : Predictions for the week- nov 24-28 US market

See predictions and update on trade 104 for US market initiated since Monday nov 24

 

 

On all 3Puts purchased, once dow drops 150 points put a trailing stop loss of 30 points and exit all puts today

update based trade 104: US market weekly prediction nov 24-28

carrying over 3 lots of dow 30 puts from nov 24 trade. the market saw a sharp fall from a high of 8607 but no further puts were added as limit price/level was not met.

 

to exit these positions on wednesday ( ort thursday) if no sharp intra day correction occurs on nov 26

Losses booked: Prediction based trade 105: Indian market nov 25

Nifty call premium on 1 lot purchased at 91.5 rose with day;s highest premium at rs 130. we assume profits were booked at rs 115. however as no bounceback followed the correction and no stop loss was specified, loss on other 4 lots is taken at rs 30- the closing value of call premium.

 

hence total loss ( after brokerage of rs 2) is about rs 6600.

Preediction based trade 105: Indian market nov 25

 

Trade 105

 

sensex up about 141 at 11.51 am

 

 

buy 1 nifty 2700 call  at rs 91.5 (current premium)

 

and buy another 4 lots at 76 rs if available before 2.30 pm today as market coudl see a sharp bounceback(temp?) after a correction form current levels

 

put trailing stop loss at rs 7 after level of rs 100 is reached

Preediction based trade 105: Indian market nov 25

Trade 105

 

sensex up about 141 at 11.51 am

 

 

buy 1 nifty 2700 call  at rs 91.5 (current premium)

 

and buy another 4 lots at 76 rs if available before 2.30 pm today as market coudl see a sharp bounceback(temp?) after a correction form current levels

 

put trailing stop loss at rs 7 after level of rs 100 is reached

update: Predictions for the week- nov 24-28 US market

Trade no 104 ( not 105 as mendtioned yesterday)

 

2 lots of dow 30 puts purchased when dow was up 350 points at 8396.as dow hit a high of 8599. another 1 put was purchased.( please note if dow rises or opens over the limit level indicated remaining 3 puts will be purchased).

Predictions for the week- nov 24-28 US market

Dow jones up over 350 points at 8390 after 2.5 hours of trade.

 

This week market likely to correct  steeply mid week with possibility of bounceback towards end of week.

 

 

trade 105: Strategy- buy 2 puts now and add 1 put for every 120 point rise in dow with maximum of 6 puts in all to be carried till wednesday. and maximum of 1 put to be carried for till thursday morning.

 

Call options may be recommended later as trade 106

Predictions

As the market is generally bearish, we will be making predictions ( intra day, weekly etc) mostly when bullishness is expected till further notice.However absence of predictions is not to be taken as prediction of bearishnes by default nor all long calls can/will be predicted.

 

 

Imp: we have noticed albeit belatedly a posting on Direct selling ( not deleted so far) on www.ckal.in made on nov 4. This post was not put up by us nor authorized by us. please bring to our notice any unusual post on these blogs

 

 

Predictions for coming week- nov 17-21

Posting of Predictions for the coming week ( on www.kal.in and www.ckal.in ) are uncertain due to long powercuts expected this week and in future.In addition predictions if any may be posted on mobile site ckal.mobi also

Meanwhile enjoy this sand scupture of Mr Obama. If you have more of such sculpures etc of eminent persons you may post them to me

Coming next on www.Indiaconsulting.in : Part 9: What India/world can do to avoid deep recession? summary

Can we isolate impact of religion and spiritual practices on economic and material outcomes? to participate in this survey please send your interest at wwwkalin@yahoo.co.in

Review of weekly Prediction Indian market: nov 10-14

 

 

we predicted for the week nov 10-14

"... tomorrow (tuesday- nov 11 ) short postion can be built for a possible intra day correction on Wednesday (or Thursday) with sharp bounceback possible on friday"

 

As can be seen in the chart for sensex for nov 10-14( ignore nov 7 chart), market corrected on tuesday and wednesday ( thursday being holiday). However bouceback though sharp on friday lasted only 30 minutes

Re: Prediction based trade Indian market: nov 10-14

With reference to yesterdays's prediction, since correction has occurred today without index enetring positive territory ( our intended point fo going short) this particular trade is abandoned

Prediction based trade Indian market: nov 10-14

No prediction is being posted for today .

 

However tomorrow short postion can be built for a possible intra day correction on Wednesday (or Thursday) with sharp bounceback possible on friday

 

This trade will be numbered ( 104) only if actual trade is recommended on 11 nov

correction: Profit booked: Prediction based trade 103:US market: Nov 7

Please note in last prediction due to a trailing stop loss of 30 points, profit on two lots was 2x150 points, not 2x180 points. giving a profit of $ 750

Profit booked: Prediction based trade 103:US market: Nov 7

Dow reached a high of 266.hence only two lots of dow purchased (and  in late afternoon dow fell nearly 180 points( before recovering  near to day's high). Hence profit on two lots $900 ( Rs 36000 at $ 1=40 (our fixed exchange rate) and Rs 43200 ( at $1 =-Rs 48).

update: Prediction based trade 103:US market: nov 7

Buy 2 dow puts if dow again reaches 225 and another 2 lots at 275 with stop loss at 325. Protect profits after a avg gain of 70 points on each lot with trailing stop loss at 30 points


Some thoughts on : what India/world can do to avoid deep recession? on http://www.indiaconsulting.in/

Technical advice required: Can emails being sent out be destroyed at internet gateway .pls send answers at wwwkalin@yahoo.co.in

Prediction based trade 103:US market: nov 7

In US market dow index up over 122 points after 35 minutes trade.

Prediction: Market though volatile, is likely to go up further in mid phase of the day but loose gains towards end of day especially on dow -( Nasdaq may see better performance)

Hence short on dow 30 in afternoon at levels( higher levels than at present) which may be informed later ( or this trade may be abandoned)

profit booked: update: Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3-7

Nifty 3000 put premium has been rising with falling markets with last premium around 208.50 giving a maximum profit on 9 puts after brokerage of rs 4 at about Rs 18000. Though nifty hs been declining continously especially after reaching profit target, it is not clear if trailing stop loss would hav e been breached. hence we assume only Rs 9000 as profits.

Note: Based on correction prediction for wednesday , profit could have been increased by adding to short positions of last two days


Part 4: Some further thoughts on "what India/world could do to avoid deep recession" will appear soon on www.Indiaconsulting.in

update: Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3

as per our weekly prediction market has corrected ( but profits were not booked on monday/ tuesday)

 

9 puts nifty 3000 purchased at average of rs 163.90. profits may be protected at rs  4 traling loss once a premium magin of rs 10 is achieved. highest premium so far is 164
 

 

note: due to ongoing long power cuts for last several days/most days, we may not be able to post updated messages in time. hence book losses/profits as per your risk assessment

Re: Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3

Buy 5 lots at current level of rs 131 instead of 121

Re: Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3

Though yesterday and today market saw correction from the nifty(put) buying levels ( Rs 205), premium did not reach the profit target.

Now Nifty up nearly 100 points with nifty put 3000 premium at Rs 125.buy aother 5 lots at rs 121 to average out and wait for apossible correction by wednesday

Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3

Nifty up about 126 points with nifty 300o put at Rs 208 with high of Rs 245 so far today

 

Market likely to see correction by /before mid week (

 

 

Buy 4 nifty puts at  205 and another set of lots  may be added by tommarrow on further upside.

 

Profit to be protected once clear advantage of Rs 35 appears with stop loss trailing at Rs 9 gap

 

Usual disclaimer applies

 

 

Review of Intra day prediction 100 & 101: oct 31

see intra day chart for oct 31 for sensex and nifty.

 

While both indices fell sharply hitting their lowest value in afternoon and rising sharply, none of the trade could be executed due to limit price condition not being met

How to get India/World out of recession?

Your view on ways to get India/world out of deep recession will be useful

Among other things, a short note on suggestions has been/will be faxed/emailed to PM and other eminent people. Please send in you suggestion at wwwkalin@yahoo.co.in

 

Regarding stock market: As per our today's prediction market has risen sharply after a sharp fall in afternoon. However limit price of options was not available in today's trading

update: Prediction based Trade 100: Indian market oct 31

After last posting, nifty premium on 2700 puts fell to Rs 129 but did not reach the limit price of Rs 125 and then close to and above the profit booking level as nifty fells over 60-70 points. ( it may fall further in afternoon)

 

Trade 101: buy 2 nifty 2900 call option at limit price of Rs 140 before 1.30 PM ( last price near rs 199). book profit at rs 170

Prediction based Trade 100: Indian market oct 31

market to be very volatile today. sensex up over 664 points an nifty up 167 points

 

buy 4 nifty 2700 puts at limit price of rs 125 ( currently 138) as a sharp temp fall is possible in afternoon.

 

you may buy call options after the fall and booking profits at nifty puts hits rs 165

 

 

How to avoid a deep recession?

This article to be followed with further thoughts now apears on www.Indiaconsulting.in

 

Predictions

Due to turbulent nature of markets, intra day predictions may be of little
relevance immediately.hence predictions with focus on weekly predictions is
likely to resume from diwali onwards

get free reading......

get a free tarot  reading( one question) by answering these questions .

 

1. how is it possible to cross connect broadband accounts (connections) w/o knowledge of users? and detect such misuse?

 

2, how to increase blog traffic( apart from email promos, RSS feeds, keyword labels)- how to increase visibilty in blog searcg engines

PREDICTIONS TO RESUME

selectively, predictions will resume from oct 22-23 onwards but not on all trading days

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prediction update

No prediction will appear for few days

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Review of Prediction based Trade 99: Indian market Sep 15

Nifty 4000 call purchased at limit price of Rs 133 with stop loss at rs 115. Stop loss was triggered inspite of good rise of indices ( over 150 points in nifty from day's low) though in second half of day.loss per lot   is Rs 1000. As no lot was mentioned, we assume only 5 lots were purchased.Loss Rs 5000

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Prediction based Trade 99: Indian market Sep 15

Sensex down over 650 points and nifty down over 200 points. Nifty 400 call at premium of Rs 148 with day low so far at 135.   Outlook: Market set to bouceback at least temporarily by mid day .   Buy nifty 400 sept call at limit price of Rs 133 before 12 noon and exit at stop loss of 115.proetct profit once premium reaches 150 with trailing stop loss of Rs 5

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Profit from Prediction based Trade 98: US market Sep 12

As can be seen market saw a rsie of almost 170 points in morning though from a negative territory and a fall of over 120 points during mid phase. However we expected a sharper fall  during mid phase and day's lowest point during this time. (see full prediction below)   Only 1 lot of Dow put purchased when dow was 11433 and fell over hundred points after that. A profit of $202

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Prediction based Trade 98: US market Sep 12

US market yet to open . Outlook: Market may see a correction which may be most pronounced in mid phase of the day. Second half is however uncertain( with possibility of bounceback) Buy 3 lots of Dow Puts if dow opens flat at 11433 and second and third lot at 11500 11540( market could see rise in initial 2 hours of trade ) .Buy all three lots if market opens at higher values. Protect profits when dow slides 70 points from point of purchase with trailing stop loss of 25 points. This prediction may be updated depending on market opening values

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Losses booked -Prediction based Trade 97: Indian market Sep 10

Nifty 4500 cal premium touched a low of 73 and closed at 79. Hence in all 14 lots purchased at average price at Rs 84.29 plus Rs 2 brokerage= Rs 86.29   Bouceback after 3 pm was not strong enough to give profits. Hence losses booked at closing premium of Rs 79.Loss on 14 lots= 14*50*(7.29)=5103

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Prediction based Trade 97: Indian market Sep 10

Nifty down about 17 points with nifty call 4500 sept at premium at 103 rupees Market may see a sharp bounceback in late afternoon. Buy 4 above call at limit premium of Rs 90 ( before 2.30 pm) and 10 lots at limit price of 82 protect profit once average profit ( after brokerage ) is about 7%

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Important

NO PREDICTIONS MAY BE POSTED FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO IMPORTANT ENGAGEMENT INITIATED RECENTLY

Profit from Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

Nifty Aug Put 4300 premium rose to high of 38.30 in steep fall before closing at above 32.50. Hence profit booked at Rs 36.80. With brokerage of Rs 2 per lot profit is Rs 7400 on 10 lots   It is not clear if premium rose to RS 15 in specified time limit for purchase of next 15 lots.hence profit level limited to 10 lots only

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Profit from Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

Nifty Aug Put 4300 premium rose to high of 38.30 in steep fall before closing at above 32.50. Hence profit booked at Rs 36.80. With brokerage of Rs 2 per lot profit is Rs 7400 on 10 lots   It is not clear if premium rose to RS 15 in specified time limit for purchase of next 15 lots.hence profit level limited to 10 lots only

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Profit from Prediction based Trade 95: US market Aug 26

Dow index rose nearly 67points after puchase of 1st lot ( and the only lot) but since no trailing stop loss margin (apart from stop loss level)  was specified. Profit is deemed booked at lower level when dow gain was just 40 points. hence profit is $100

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Final Update: Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

It was not mentioned the trailing stop loss level. This shoud be Rs 1.50 with nifty premium now at 29.5 with high of 31.5

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Final Update: Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

at nearly 3 pm nfity is below 4300 level with nifty put 4300 premium at 26 with high of rs 29.50 ( jsut below target of Rs 30). Protect premium at Rs 25 on all  lots

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Update: Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

Nifty Put 4300 aug premium over Rs 24 now. Profit to be protected at Rs 26 after premium has crossed Rs 30 and trailing by Rs 4 after every  Rs 4 increase in premium   Also stop loss levels to be held in abeyance for now

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Prediction based Trade 96: Indian market Aug 27

Market may go down again in afternoon before bouncing back Nifty Put 4300 aug at premium of Rs 20. Buy 10 lots of nifty puts and another fifteen lots at limit price of Rs 15 if available in next 1 hour

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Prediction based trade 95 : US market Aug 26

Dow down 17 points after 25 mts of trade at 11369

Dow and nasdaq expected to hit a near peak in next 3 hours. Though after that higher values amidst volatility not ruled out.

Buy 3 lots of dow call options -1 at present level second at dow -70 and thrid lot at dow -100 ( before 12 noon)

Protect profits after dow gains 50 points on lots with trailing stop loss at 40 points. exit all lots at -120

Prediction based Trade 95: US market Aug 26

Dow down 17 points after 25 mts of trade at 11369

 

Dow and nasdaq expected to hit a near peak in next 3 hours. Though after that higher values amidst volatility not ruled out.

 

Buy 3 lots of dow call options -1 at present level second at dow -70 and thrid lot at dow -100 ( before 12 noon)

 

Protect profits after dow gains 50 points on lots with trailing stop loss at 40 points. exit all lots at -120
 

Addtional rules on Profit booking and Stop Loss

In a virtual trading it is not possible to track markets throughout the day. Hence we have introduced the following rules which will apply if no alternative directions are given along with market predictions or before the predicted event or in follow up article

1. Profit will be protected once net profits on trade exceeds 15% with stop loss at 13% and trailing profits by same margin for every 1% increase in profits ( even if profits appear before predicted time or day) for a single lot of options or futures

2. In case of more than 1 lot , for 50% of lots ( to nearest integer) profits will be protected as per above rules and for remaining lots .For remaining lots of options, profits will be protected at 25% profts with trailing stop loss at 23% and increasing by 1%

3.Losses wil be squared in cse of wrong predictions for all lots but one when losses are 25% of initial investment

4. If follow -up Predictions fail to appear on blog on time, above rules will apply as well

Addtional Rules on Profit booking and Stop loss

In a virtual trading it is not possible to track markets throughout the day. Hence we have introduced the following rules which will apply if no alternative directions are given along with market predictions or before the predicted event   1. Profit will be protected once net profits on trade exceeds 15% with stop loss at 13% and trailing profits by same margin for every 1% increase in profits ( even if profits appear before predicted time or day) for a single lot of options or futures   2. In case of more than 1 lot , for 50% of lots ( to nearest integer) profits will be protected as per above rules and for remaining lots .For remaining lots of options, profits will be protected at 25% profts with trailing stop loss at 23% and increasing by 1%   3.Losses wil be sqaured in cse of wrong predictions for all lots but one when losses are 25% of  initial investment   4. If  follow -up Predictions fail to appear on blog on time, above rules will apply as well

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Oil price to touch new high? by Tarot cards

Based on reading of Tarot cards , it is possible that crude oil prices may rise to a new all time high before october. Yearly lows has already been attained in april as per Tarot reading hence oil may not go down below 90-100 a barrel

Also read Further thoughts on " Do People Under Invest in their spiritual growth" now posted at www.IndiaConsulting.in

Correction: trade 94 final update:Profit

Please note as per profit booking rules set yesterday in Trade 94 profits would be $165 and not $ 200 as reported earlier

Prediction based trade 94 final update:Profit booked

2 lots of dow call options purchased at dow -100 and dow -150 ( days low so far is -160 approx) at average level whne dow was

 -125.

 

Dow has risen to peak formation like structure with a near term high of - 80 appox that is gain of 45 points per lot. Stop loss triggered at dow -85 with total gain of 80 points on two lots. approx gain of $ 200 ( based on rough calculatation of $5 mini dow).

 

 

 

 

Prediction based trade 94: Update

Profits must be protected after a gain of 40 points with stop loss trailing at 10 point difference

Predictions based trade 94: US market Aug 19

Dow and nasdaq down 67 and 14 points after about 10 mts of trade.

 

Market outlook: Both indices likely to bounceback by afternoon creating a peak formation approx between 1-2 pm( US time). Thereafter marketoutlook is less certain due to volatility( a sharp fall is possible in late afternoon)

 

Strategy: Buy two lots of dow index call options one at dow -100 and second at dow -150 with stop loss at 190 for both. Buy both lots before 12 noon

Predictions update

Predictions are being resumed -earlier than the announced date. Hence no free tips over phone will be available.

Predictions update

Please note our predictions are likely to resume on Monday August 25. In meantime you may call for daily tips on Wednesday and Friday between 10 and 11 am for market outlook at 9911698256

Performance Report on Prediction based Trading Fund

The usual format for performance review of our prediction based trading fund may not available fro some time .Please note the following regarding predictions this week

.1 This has been a bad week with losses over 5% of our trading fund for the entire week. However we continue to outperform all major indices with our trading fund still giving 13-15% since April 1

2. Based on our experience this week, some changes in rules regarding booking of profits and stop loss will be introduced( In real trading ,for example significant profits will be booked even if they occur before our predicted time)

Update on Trade 91: Us market weekly predictions

3 dow puts purchased at average dow 30 level of 11356.33. Profits should be protected once dow 30 hits 11320 today

updates on this week's predictions

Indian market Weekly predictions: 4 lots of nifty 4400 puts purchased at Rs 139 average price. After brokerage will become profitable at any premium over 143 per lot.( remaining lots not purchased as price target not met) Sharp correction predicted between 6-8 august happened only from very high levels.

 

Day prediction: Monday 4 intra day loss will be included in weekly performance chart

 

 

US market- weekly prediction: Carrying forward so far 3 dow 30 Puts purchased at 11370( 2 lots)  and 11322(1 lot). This postion was already profitable on Monday ( and in real trade profits would have been booked) .however we recommended carrying these positions till end of week in line with our predictions sharp correction towards end of week. These positions will become profitable at dow 30 level of 11357 approx or below ( Thursday closing of dow 30 at 11431)

update on trade 90

Purchase of 5 Put options recommended for week at Rs 155.90  and another 10 at limit price of Rs 145. Profits on weekly predictions to be booked between Wednesday and friday

Prediction based trade 93 and 90: Indian market

 

Trade 91: Buy 5 nifty 4400 put tion option at sr 155.90 and another 5 options at limit price of Rs 142 till late lateafternoon protect profits after a premium advantage of Rs 21 is reached over average premium paid

 

Trade 90: Buy Nifty put options at current price of Rs155.90 till rest of the week

 

 

PS: please note error in numbering of last night’s US predictions. Weekly predictions now in profit at about $ 500( unbooked) while day predictions was exited at no loss

further update on trade 90 & 91

Trade 90: nasdaq call option has gone in to mild profit zone( should not go onto loss zone)

 

Trade 91: three lots of dow puts purchased with 1 lot at  11323 and next 2 lots at dow +50 ( i.e when dow was 11370 few minutes back)

update on prediction based trade 90&91: US market

Trade 90: Intra day- dow down only 3 poinst nasdaq down 18-19 points

 

Buy 1 lot of nasdaq call options now and another lot if nasdaq is down 30 points before about 1 hour before market closing

 

 

Trade 91 ( for the week) : short 1 dow ( buy put options) and another 2 lots if dow rises+50 points

Prediction based trade 92: US market for the week aug 4-8

A downward trend especially for dow index. Short positions for the week can be built towards end of day when market may bounceback.

Prediction based intra day trade 91: US market aug 4

Dow down 68 points at after 40 minutes of trade today. Nasdaq down 15 points. Both indices particularly nasdaq likely to bounceback towards end of day.

 

However buying level may  be informed later during the day today

 

Update on Trade 90: Indian market aug 4-8

Buy first 4 lots at Rs 139 of nifty put 4400 ( day low is Rs 140  few minutes back) and rest of lots as recommended

 

 

Prediction based Trade 90: India market( based on weekly prediction-aug 4-8)

Nifty Put options 4400 at Rs 151 now at 11.25 am approx.

 

 

Accumulate nifty 4400 put option till Tuesday at limit price of Rs 135( 4 lots)  and for every Rs 20 increase( buy 5 lots) with maximum of 25 lots.

 

Start booking profits by Wednesday

 

Markets to remain volatile throughout this week

Predictions

Predictions are likely to resume this week after a long gap, ceteris paribus (or nearly so)

predictions update etc

No stock market prediction may be available for a few days. Some  special predictions could however be posted

 

 

Also further thoughts and corrections to article posted on www.indiaconsulting.in  will be posted in a few days

 

Tel 09911698256,09312039121

prediction based trade 88& 89: Intra day prediction US market July 23

US market likely to see volatility inspite of good news such as on oil price etc with two episodes of correction ( first in morning and late afternoon) and possibly two bouceback following each of these corrections

 

This prediction is posted about 1 hour before market opens

 

 

Trade 88: Short two lots of dow 30 as market may down after positive opening. Short at dow 30+110 and dow +170 unless higher value ( in lieu of 110) is seen by 10 am US time( adjust both shorting points accordingly)

 

 

Trade 89: Go long on dow 30 after first correction ( unless values are given for taking long calls, this trade should be ignored)

article and Predictions

Intra day prediction will be posted on July 23 for Indian or US market

 

 

 

The article on “ why people under-invest in their spiritual growth- part 2” will be posted shortly on

 

www.IndiaConsulting.in

 

 

 

Predictions

Please wait for next announcement regarding predictions

Review of Intra day prediction US market July 17

Prediction made: ( see original prediction preceding number of updates) for July 17

 

A volatile market offering opportunity for three distinct profit making trades ; trade 85 ( shorting-first phase), Trade 86 ( long position-second phase) and shorting in late afternoon ( third phase)

 

 

As can be seen chart follows the prediction broadly except that towards end of day inspite of 8o pint fall from a high of 207 , the fall was temporary which was not predicted.

 

Trade 85: profit of $ 165 from dow shorts ( nasdaq short not triggered)

 

Trade 86: profit of $100 from dow long call( it was a mistake to book profit instead of using trailing stop loss) and another profit of  $ 140 from Nasdaq long call( where trailing stop loss gave good profits).total profits $ 240

 

Trade 87: Loss of $750 from three dow shorts( as no no exit call was given and hence profit booked at highest levels).shorts were created too early leaving a loss of $ 750

 

 

 

 

update on trade 86

Nasdaq call options purchased at around 10.25  when dow 30 stop loss limits were trioggered- i.e when nasdaq was about +7 points.

 

 

Now up 17 points. Protect profits  with trailing stop loss of 4 points

update on trade 85,86

Trade 85 stop loss triggered with profits

 

 

Trade 86: Book profit with dow up at 82 points

FW: update on trades 85,86,87 July 17

( this message it seems has not appeared on the blog though it was posted at 7.23 pm Indian time and hence forwarded to maintain continuity in predictions message for US market today)

Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:23 PM
To: 'webname-starpunditcom.allpredictions@blogger.com'
Subject: update on trades 85,86,87 July 17

 

Protect profits on dow 30 after gain of 50 points by using trailing stop loss of 20

 

In case of nasdaq protect profits after every gain of 15 points with trailing stop loss of 5 points

update on trade 87

Dow  30 now up 70 points.

 

Sell 1 dow ( i.e Buy Dow put option) another  2 lots at dow +100 and +120 before 3 pm US time

 

Protect profits if dow falls by 40 points compared to average purchase level

further update on Trade 85 & 86

Trade 85 with shorting of dow 30 at 110 is now into profits .however short limit for nasdaq was not met.

 

Hence

 

Long position on nasdaq under trade 86 should be initiated when dow 30 stop loss is triggered in trade 85

Update on trade 86 July 17

Trade 86 should be initiated only after trailing stop loss for trade 85 is triggered

Prediction based trade 85,86,87 U S market July 17

 

Because of volatility expected in today’s market three predictions are lumped together

 

 

Dow up 103 points  Nadaq up 25 points at 7.14 pm Indian time( 15 minutes after market opening)

 

Market may reach peak in late afternoon but give up gains towards end of today amidst volatility

 

Trade 85

 

 

Short 1 dow 30 and 1 nasdaq at limit price of 110 and 33 respectively in next 30 minutes .exit at stop loss of 140 and 40

 

Trade 86

 

Buy 1 dow 30 and 1 nasdaq call options before 12 noon (US time) at limit price of dow 30  30 points and nasdaq  10

 

 

Trade 87

 

 

Short 2 dow 30  at 2.30-3 .00 pm in two stages if dow up 170 poinst and nasdaq up 40 points

 

 

 

Please note limit  prices may be revised if not triggered before that

Review of Intra day Indian market prediction July 16

Prediction made to Buy July call options yesterday at 2.26 pm( time of prediction posting) as market was expected to bounce back in last  hour or so

 

At 2..26 Pm Nifty was down about 40-50  points with a low of about - 70 points before 3 pm but pulled back maximum of 50 points in last hour of trade before gong down to -40 points. Without Stop loss limits, losses could have turned in to profits our trading strategy

 

This prediction as also other loss making prediction in our series show how our prediction based trading model required combined use of Options and very infrequent or liberal Stop Loss limits to make good profits on consistent basis.- which is contrarian  wisdom

 

 

 

Stop Loss triggered for Trade 84

Premium has hit a value of Rs 116. Stop loss triggered with total loss on 8 lots at Rs 4800 including brokerage

Update on Trade 84

Price limit of Rs 130 triggered. Low price so far now at Rs 128.15.

 

 

Protect profit onec premium advantage of Rs 10 is reached by putting stop loss at Rs 7 .use trailing stop loss of rs 4

Prediction based Trade 84: Indian market July 16

No trial prediction will appear this week apart from this one

 

 

Nifty down about 30-40 points at 2.20-.2.25

 

Market expected to bounce back in last one hour or so.

 

Buy 3 Nifty July call 3800 – (last premium at 136.50, day low so far 131.50) at limit price of 130 and another 5 lots at limit price of Rs 127 if available before 3 pm.

 

Exit if loss per lot is Rs 10 from average purchase price

No Prediction on July 14

No Prediction will be posted on July 14. Please wait for next prediction annoucement

Performance of Prediction based Trading Fund since April 1,2008

We started this virtual Trading fund to demonstrate the effective of our Prediction based Trading

system starting with Rs 10 lacs and trading in US and Indian markets. A gain of 21.8% has been

achieved so far with over 69% success rate after 64 executed trades.

(Trade no 83 has been left out of Trading Fund Stats because of marginal profits )

Index & Fund growth since April 1, 2008

% growth ( with March 31,2008 closing values as base)

Sensex

-13.9

Nifty

-14.6

Dow 30

-9.8*

Nasdaq

-1.9*

Our Trading Fund

21.8

*US market still open with 80 minutes of trade left

1. Please note bulk of our trading has been in Nifty and Dow 30

2. Success rate of about 69% on 65 executed trades ( 44 right, 20 wrong and one abandoned)

and another 18 trades not being executed due to price limits not being met or duplicate trade

(1). Last trade Trade no 83 has been left out of Trading Fund Stats because of marginal profits

3.All four indices have seen net loss sine April 1,,2008

Details of Trade wise Profit and Loss

Trade no	Profit/ loss (Rs)	Remarks
Trade 1-83	217924	Net gain of 21.8% since april 1,2008 with 3 predictions this week but none in the Trading Fund series
Trade 83	300	Trade 83 & profit from it abandoned/discounted in Performance Stats calculation due to small profits
Trade 82	3400	Indian market- July 4
Trade 1-81	214524	Gain of 21.5 percent till June 27 since April 1,2008 with net weekly gain of 3.1 % in that week

Total of three predictions given this week

1. World markets weekly prediction- successful ( new series not part of Trading Fund yet)
2. Intra day US market –July 10- successful ( but not part of Trading fund series)
3. Intra day Indian market-July 11- abandoned due to small profits

Details of previous trades can be read from previous performance reports posted every week since April 1,2008.

These live predictions appear on http://www.kal.in/ and http://www.ckal.in/

Note: Please note from now on we shall occasionally trade based on market information and not just on prediction based “information” to take advantage of widely known short term future trends

To book your prediction for July, weekly outlook or intra day prediction Call 09312039121 .

Fee Payable only on profit making predictions