profit booked: update: Prediction based trade 102: based on weekly outlook: nov 3-7

Nifty 3000 put premium has been rising with falling markets with last premium around 208.50 giving a maximum profit on 9 puts after brokerage of rs 4 at about Rs 18000. Though nifty hs been declining continously especially after reaching profit target, it is not clear if trailing stop loss would hav e been breached. hence we assume only Rs 9000 as profits.

Note: Based on correction prediction for wednesday , profit could have been increased by adding to short positions of last two days


Part 4: Some further thoughts on "what India/world could do to avoid deep recession" will appear soon on www.Indiaconsulting.in

Final update: Trade 69 : Profit booked under Trailing Stop loss rule

June 4800 Puts premium now at Rs over 240. we believe that stop loss may have been hit at Rs 232 few minutes back when Nifty recovered about 25 points. Hence profit on 25 lots purchased at average price of 177.2 is about ( after deducting rs 2 brokerage per lot) is

Profit today=(232-177.2)*50*25- ( 25*2*50)= Rs 66000.

In real trade you may keep a few lots till next 1-2 days for better profits

Performance of Our Prediction based Trading Fund since Inception

We started this virtual Trading fund to demonstrate the effective of our Prediction based Trading system starting with Rs 10 lacs and trading in US and Indian markets. A gain of 10.50% has been achieved so far with nearly 75% success rate.

PLEASE NOTE FROM NOW ON ( UNTIL FURTHER UPDATE) A MAXIMUM OF 5 PREDICTIONS FOR INDIAN AND US MARKET (COMBINED) WILL BE POSTED FREE PER WEEK.

Index & Fund growth since April 1, 2008

% growth ( with March 31,2008 closing values as base)

Sensex

6.4

Nifty

4.5

Dow 30

2.2

Nasdaq

8.1

Our Trading Fund

10.5*

1. Please note bulk of our trading in Nifty and Dow 30

2. Success rate on 74.4% on 47 executed trades ( 35 right, 12 wrong) and another 14 trades not being executed due to price target set or duplicate trade (1)

Details of Trade wise Profit and Loss

Trade no	Profit/ loss	Remarks
Trade 1-61	Rs 105149 or $ 2628	Gain of 10.5% since fund inception with net gain in this of market loss world wide
61	400	US market- marginal profit
60	1900	US market
59	NE	Price target not met on Indian market trade
57	NE	US market
56	2400	US market
55	19500	Indian market
54	800	US market
53	NE
52	3200	US market
51	-2500	Indian market
50	1900-2750=-850	2 trades of which one was profitable with overall net loss –Indian market
49	-16500	US market
All 48 Trades	96799 or US $ 2420	A gain of over 9.68% with net loss registered in last week’s trading ( after adjusting for two open loss making trades turned in to profits this week ( trade 40,46)

Notes on Trades since Traders’ Virtual Mutual Fund inception April 1,2008

1. Out of total trades 61, about 13 were not executed as price target were not met and one was a duplicate trade. Out of these 10 Not Executed(NE) Trades, at least seven would have given profits if purchased at prevailing current premium/price at the recommended time.Out of these four two order on Infosys Technology –buy and Nasdaq future buy call on April 14 for the week would have given huge profits
2. In last week report trade 40 and 46 were loss making in open position which have turned in to profits
3. In some of the trades, stop loss was hit by 1 or 12 points ,oethrwise trades would have been profitable. Hence given the overall strength of our prediction we have switched to using options rather than futures with a higher risk reward pattern but risk being limited from beginning
4. In one of the performance report un-booked profit was RS 11200 on trade 36 which rose to Rs 13200 on booking profits last monday
5. Trade no1 profitable but abandoned earlier has been allotted a profit of US110 dollars as 75 points on Dow 30 drop would have given profits of atleast this amount on purchase of Put option.
6. On trade 16 in US market, earlier profit of US250 was allotted out of maximum profit of US $ 325. This profit is further cut down to US$ 162.5 as only future options was recommended not futures.
7. On trade 23 profit of Rs 1700 was made under erroneous accounting that 4 option were purchased. Actually only 3 options were purchased. Hence profit is only Rs 1250
8. Total profit made on total fund of Rs 10 lacs is RS 1090999 or US$2276. ( fixed exchange rate of RS 40=US$1) used. Gain of 10.09 % in fund asset value in 7 week time ( by May 16,2008) . No interest on idle funds imputed even though only a small portion of total fund used for trading. Trade no 27 in US market was a lucky trade as we just managed to reach profit protection limit on Dow ( but comfortably on Nasdaq) . Hence out of a possible profit over $250 we consider only $150 or Rs 6000 as profits
9. In total of 37 trades trades Nos 8&9 are same. Trades 15 and 17 are same
10. Trade 37, we exited dow 30 position with a small loss but nasdaq futures gave a small profit at nasdaq closing values of Friday may 9
11. In real trading, impact of emotions on executing and closing trades may be different for different people.
12. Red trades are losses, green trades are Profits.
13. Most trades on Indices and only a few are on stock based trading
14. Paid services are sent through SMS , not available on our blog/website

Email : future@ckal.mobi

Tel: 0911698256,09312039121

Performance of Trader's Mutual/Trading Fund: April1-May 2,2008

We started this virtual fund to demonstrate the effective of our Prediction based Trading system starting with Rs 10 lacs and trading in US and Indian markets. It is still too early to make a definite conclusion of effective of our prediction based trading model though in last one month a gain of 7.1% has been achieved

Trade No	Profit/Loss	Stock Market
1	4400	US
2	5400	India
3	3000	India
4	NE	US
5	3900	US
6	NE	US
7	6500	US
8	0	US
9	NE	US
10	1500	India
11	NE	India
12	NE	India
13	-1600	India
14	2200	India
15	0	India
16	10600	US
17	5200	India
18	2400	US
19	5649	India
20	-2000	US
21	26800	US
22	open	India
23	1250	India
24	-4000	US
25	NE	US
Total Profit	Rs 71199		US$1780

Notes on Trades since Traders’ Virtual Mutual Fund inception April 1,2008

1. Out of total trades 25, about six were not executed as price target were not met. Out of these six Not Executed(NE) Trades, four would have given profits if purchased at prevailing current premium/price at the recommended time.Out of these four two order on Infy –buy and Nasdaq future buy call on April 14 for the week would have given huge profits
2. Trade no1 profitable but abandone earlier has been allotted a profit of US110 dollars as 75 points on Dow 30 drop would have given profits of atleast this amount on purchase of Put option.
3. On trade 16 in US market, earlier profit of US250 was allotted out of maxmim profit of US $ 325. This profit is further cut down to US$ 162.5 as only future options was recommended not futures.
4. On trade 23 profit of Rs 1700 was made under erroneous accounting that 4 option were purchased. Actually only 3 options were purchased. Hence profit is only Rs 1250.On trade 24 loss of $100 instead of $70 has been booked.Total profit made on total fund of Rs 10 lacs is RS 71199 or US$1780. ( fixed exchange rate of RS 40=US$1) used. Gain of 7.1% fund asset value in 5 week time. No interest on idle funds imputed even though only a small portion of total fund used for trading
5. In total of 25 trades trades Nos 8&9 are same. Trades 15 and 17 are same
6. Success rate of trades will calculated after at least 30 complete trades.
7. In real trading, impact of emotions on executing and closing trades may be different for different people.
8. Red trades are losses, Blue trades are Profits.
9. Most trades on Indices and only a few are on stock based trading
10. Paid services are sent through SMS , not available on our blog/website

Review of weekly prediction for key world market April 28-May 2

See original prediction posted on April 28,2008

1.Chinese: Buy on Monday correction would have given huge profits

2. Hang Seng: Mid week correction but Market rose on first two days giving losses

3. Nikkie: Volatile market but with recommendation to sell till mid week would have given some profits

4. US market: Buy rather than sell recommendation would have given good profits

5. India: Buy on mid week correction would given huge profits

score : 4/5

Email : future@ckal.mobi

Tel: 0911698256,09312039121