Review : Prediction for July 2009

see Monthly chart for  Sensex-july 2009

 

1. Sharp correction in early phase of July was predicted (see also the weekly prediction during the week of correction) as also bounceback from every correction during the month .

 

2.However prediction of net large monthly gains in main indices was not predicted

 

 

 

Link to July Month 2009 Prediction. Click here ( original posted below)

 

Indian Stock market prediction for July 2009: No single consistent trend is seen for this month. Market will tend to bounceback after every correction with at least one correction that may be much significant than others and may follow as early as mid-to end of next week.

There is greater indication of sharper correction in Nifty

Re: Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 31

No intra day prediction will be posted today .However as per end of week prediction hinted yesterday(see below) good bounceback/rise  is expected today

Prediction as Posted yesterday

 

Although weekly prediction was not posted for this week, it seems likely a sharp bounceback may occur on friday. henc e buy aug call options till july 31.Intra day for july 31 may be posted later

Review: Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 30-Trade 67

As seen in chart Nifty hit previous day's clsoing value of 4513 hence nifty Put 4600 premium would have risen to atleast Rs 87. Assuming only 20 puts were pruchased- profit would be at least Rs 18000-maximum Rs 27000.

 

Pls note: part of weekly prediction as posted today( call to buy till tommorrow) will not be reviewed since  no buying price was recommended.

Prediction as posted in morning(below)

 

 

Nifty up just 2-3 points after a volatile session. It seems that a peak wil be reaached in afternoon ( possibly 12.30-1.30  pm) and then another sharp fall in afternoon may follow but may bounce back

 

Buy 30 (20+10) Nifty 4600 Puts(july series) at rs ( 60+50)( now ta Rs 86).Protect profit after average gain of Rs 18 per lot.Square off this position today itself(see below)

 

Although weekly prediction was not posted for this week, it seems likely a sharp bounceback may occur on friday. henc e buy aug call options till july 31.Intra day for july 31 may be posted later

Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 30-Trade 67

Nifty up just 2-3 points after a volatile session. It seems that a peak wil be reaached in afternoon ( possibly 12.30-1.30  pm) and then another sharp fall in afternoon may follow but may bounce back

 

Buy 30 (20+10) Nifty 4600 Puts(july series) at rs ( 60+50)( now ta Rs 86).Protect profit after average gain of Rs 18 per lot.Square off this position today itself(see below)

 

Although weekly prediction was not posted for this week, it seems likely a sharp bounceback may occur on friday. henc e buy aug call options till july 31.Intra day for july 31 may be posted later

Review: Indian market prediction - july 20 -24

As seen in the chart, long positions generally were profitable by mid week ( wednesday). High point of wednesday is quite close to peak of friday due to significant correction on wednesday itself. No correction took place towards end of week

 

Weekly Prediction( july 20-24) as posted on july 20-below

 

Further based on weekly outlook( not published separtely) market will tend to bounceback.hence long positions can be created on correction today which if not profitable by end of day likely to become profitable by/before mid week( a volatile week)

Review: US stock market Prediction for the week July 20-24,2009

As chart indicates there was a bullish trend un US market last week (see prediction below). However no intra day correction took place.

 

Profits were made on long positions in line with prediction below.( long position if well s fargo and ABK finance were added) ( however due to carryover of short position in First Solar from past week) significant losses were made- not related to our prediction  model. details of profit /loss wil made available later

 

Weekly prediction for july 20-24 for US market:

 

 

US market will generally be bullish this week( or till mid week ) and will tend biouceback from most corrections. However there is strong possibility of strong correction (intra day? ) towards end of week( thursday or friday).

 

Long positions for the week in Diamond index and Boeing corporation shares will be created
 

Profit?: weekly prediction update: Indian market prediction-july 22

Premium on nifty puts 4600 has now risen to Rs 193 with unbooked profit of Rs 35000. In actual trading such profits would need to be booked. However since weekly predictions scope for further downside, we will wait for the entire prediction to be work out

Prediction-strategy as posted around/before noon:

 

 

Nifty has touched a high of 4550 and as indicated in weekly outllok markets will touch highs during mid week.

 

In remaining days significant correction ( intra day ?) may occur. Buy 10 4600 Puts at rs 122( present) and another 10 before thursday close at Rs 95 or lower( day lowest so far today is 103)

 

Pls note due to approaching expiry of july series premium may deteriorate fast even though prediction of correction may turn out true

 

Weekly outlook/Prediction as Posted on Monday July 20(below)

 

Further based on weekly outlook( not published separtely) market will tend to bounceback.hence long positions can be created on correction today which if not profitable by end of day likely to become profitable by/before mid week( a volatile week)

weekly prediction update: Indian market prediction-july 22

Nifty has touched a high of 4550 and as indicated in weekly outllok markets will touch highs during mid week.

 

In remaining days significant correction ( intra day ?) may occur. Buy 10 4600 Puts at rs 122( present) and another 10 before thursday close at Rs 95 or lower( day lowest so far today is 103)

 

Pls note due to approaching expiry of july series premium may deteriorate fast even though prediction of correction may turn out true

 

Weekly outlook/Prediction as Posted on Monday July 20(below)

 

Further based on weekly outlook( not published separtely) market will tend to bounceback.hence long positions can be created on correction today which if not profitable by end of day likely to become profitable by/before mid week( a volatile week)

Review: Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 21-Trade 66

Trade no 65: One 5 lots could be purchased. Profits were inthe range of Rs 7000-7500.

 

Trade no 65-Profit for US trading for Trade no 64( july 20) was in the range of $175,000 to $185,000.( because Kaching trading site is not fully accessible, full /corrected details will begiven later).

As some long trades were based on weekly prediction for US,( see below for US market) further down adjustment will need to be made for pure daytrading profits
 

 

Re: Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 21

Nifty at 4457. Nifty 4300 call option at Rs 194 with day lowest at Rs 180 so far.

 

Buy 5 call options at 194 and 30 call options at Rs 175 (15) and 170(15)if available before 2.30 pm as sharp rise may occur in last hour (approx)

 

Prediction as Posted in morning( before market)

 

 

Indian markets likely to see upward movement most of the day.

However buying opportunity may come more than once. Possibly the sharpest rise may come towards end of day followng an afternoon correction.

 

Buy in morning if market corrects at any points or opens negative.Actula trade may be given later

Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 21

Indian markets likely to see upward movement most of the day.

However buying opportunity may come more than once. Possibly the sharpest rise may come towards end of day followng an afternoon correction.

 

Buy in morning if market corrects at any points or opens negative.Actula trade may be given later

Review: US market prediction - Intra day for july 20

Most notably the correction did  not take place in afternoon.Details of profit/loss will be given later

Prediction as posted on July 20

 

 

US market today will generally be doing much better in first half( either operating in green or bouncing back from any neagtive or poor start in morning). However a strong correction that may be occur closer to end of day or second half of day i s possible.(but bounceback is not ruled out)

 

we can expect intra day chart of second half to be lower or contain severe dip as compapred to first half( unless markets opens in deep negative)

 

 

1. Strategy: Buy call options if market opens neagtive or flat

2. If 1 is profitable short index in afternoon when index may peak

US market prediction - Intra day for july 20

US market today will generally be doing much better in first half( either operating in green or bouncing back from any neagtive or poor start in morning). However a strong correction that may be occur closer to end of day or second half of day i s possible.(but bounceback is not ruled out)

 

we can expect intra day chart of second half to be lower or contain severe dip as compapred to first half( unless markets opens in deep negative)

 

 

1. Strategy: Buy call options if market opens neagtive or flat

2. If 1 is profitable short index in afternoon when index may peak

US stock market Prediction for the week July 20-24,2009

US market will generally be bullish this week( or till mid week ) and will tend biouceback from most corrections. However there is strong possibility of strong correction (intra day? ) towards end of week( thursday or friday).

 

Long positions for the week in Diamond index and Boeing corporation shares will be created
 

Review: Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 20 trade 64

No significant correction took place with anet loss of approx 26k on 30 lots of nifty 4400Puts(see original prediction below)

Indian market prediction - Intra day for july 20 trade 64

Nifty at 4436 up over 64 points. At some point during the day a significant correction may occur.

 

Buy 15 Nifty 440 puts at Rs 81 and another 15 at Rs 66 before 2.30 pm.Protect profits after gain of Rs 15 per lot

 

Further based on weekly outlook( not published separtely) market will tend to bounceback.hence long positions can be created on correction today which if not profitable by end of day likely to become profitable by/before mid week( a volatile week)

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 16

due to paucity of time, prediction was made for remaining trade hours using special astrological technique based time configuration of planets.Prediction failed( possibly due to ignoring placement of sun ).

Pure day trade loss on shorting Diamond fund : $158,000.
Profit from shorting First Solar 50 k shares: + $171,000

Net profit $13,000

Prediction as posted on July 16 around 9pm( 2 hours after trading)

US market now flattish. Based on a special astrological technique , we believe US market may go down or struggle most o f the day today ending negative or flat.

short positions carried forward and more may be created today in anticipation of a possible fall today.

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 15 trade 63

as seen inthe chart for july 15 correction did not occur.

 

 

Profts were made on long position: $ 25,000. Unbooked loss on shorts were $47,000. net loss $22k

 

 

 

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 16

US market now flattish. Based on a special astrological technique , we believe US market may go down or struggle most of the day today ending negative or flat or mildly positive(edited).

short positions carried forward and more may be created today in anticipation of a possible fall today.

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 15 trade 63

US index dow 30 up 122 points in early trade. Market may see some cooling off in next 90 mts but could reach  days high approx between 1-2 pm. A strong dip./correction is possible after that followed by bounceback but it cannot be said  if bounceback will stronger than correction of late afternoon.

 

 

Both short and long positions created ( including limit price orders for shorting)

 

 

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 14, trade 62

As seen in the intra day chart, the prediction was broadly correct though a deeper correction was expected. However limit price of short orders was not met. hence no profit or loss

 

Prediction as posted for Juky 14- 90 mts before amrket opened

 

 

US market as per biz cues is expected to open in positive( to open after 90 mts)

 

However we take contrarian view based on Tarot  card reading that market may see  a peak formation in early part of the day and then  loose gains by /before afternoon. Limited indication of bounceback towards end  of day but not completely so.

 

hence Diamond index funds shorted at limit prices with profit to be deemed booked or protected after profit of $1 is made per share

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 14, trade 62

US market as per biz cues is expected to open in positive( to open after 90 mts)

 

However we take contrarian view based on Tarot  card reading that market may see  a peak formation in early part of the day and then  loose gains by /before afternoon. Limited indication of bounceback towards end  of day but not completely so.

 

hence Diamond index funds shorted at limit prices with profit to be deemed booked or protected after profit of $1 is made per share

Review: Indian stock market Prediction - Intra day for july 14-trade 61

Total loss per lot was Rs 10 including brokerage. ( unfortunately due to lack of  clear instructions purchases was triggered after correction in afternoon-which was not a significant correction). Total loss on 40 lots was Rs 20,000

 

 

 

 

Nifty up about 90 points. Nifty 4000 Put at premium of Rs 89 . Makret may dip sharply in afternoon( see rest of prediction below)  Buy 15 puts options at Rs 82 and another 25 at Rs 67. Exit if average loss exceeds Rs 17. Protect profits on gain of Rs 20 per lot

 

 

Prediction as posted in morning before market opened

 

Indian stock markets expecte to open  and operate ingreen .

 

However there are indications that in afternoon a significant correction may take place.

 

There are mixed (unclear?) indications of market bouncing back in closing hours.

 

1. But call options if market opens less than 50 points in green-preferably flattish or negative

 

2. Buy Put options of near money options after 80-100 mts of trade if premium is atl least Rs 40  lower  than  yesterday closing

Moderation to this trade may be given after observing initial trading pattern

 

 

Usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies( no weekly prediction will be posted thsi week)

 

Re: Indian stock market Prediction - Intra day for july 14-trade 61

Nifty up about 90 points. Nifty 4000 Put at premium of Rs 89 . Makret may dip sharply in afternoon( see rest of prediction below)  Buy 15 puts options at Rs 82 and another 25 at Rs 67. Exit if average loss exceeds Rs 17. Protect profits on gain of Rs 20 per lot

 

 

Prediction as posted in morning before market opened

 

Indian stock markets expecte to open  and operate ingreen .

 

However there are indications that in afternoon a significant correction may take place.

 

There are mixed (unclear?) indications of market bouncing back in closing hours.

 

1. But call options if market opens less than 50 points in green-preferably flattish or negative

 

2. Buy Put options of near money options after 80-100 mts of trade if premium is atl least Rs 40  lower  than  yesterday closing

Moderation to this trade may be given after observing initial trading pattern

 

 

Usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies( no weekly prediction will be posted thsi week)

 

Indian stock market Prediction - Intra day for july 14

Indian stock markets expecte to open  and operate ingreen .

 

However there are indications that in afternoon a significant correction may take place.

 

There are mixed (unclear?) indications of market bouncing back in closing hours.

 

1. But call options if market opens less than 50 points in green-preferably flattish or negative

 

2. Buy Put options of near money options after 80-100 mts of trade if premium is atl least Rs 40  lower  than  yesterday closing

Moderation to this trade may be given after observing initial trading pattern

 

 

Usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies( no weekly prediction will be posted thsi week)

 

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 13, trade 60

As can be seen the prediction turned out quite wrong with no afternoon correction.Unbooked loss of $75k on diamond index shares

 

Prediction as posted one hour before market opened:

 

 

US market to open in about 1 hour.

 

US market particularly dow 30 index could experience  correction in afternoon but may may bounce back. These predicted indications are stronger for  nasdaq index. ( there is lack of clarity of dow index overall performance in first 2 hours of trade).

 

Diamond index fund shorted in two lots at $ 81.98 and $ 82.20( total 60k shares) on Kaching trading site account

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 13, trade 60

US market to open in about 1 hour.

 

US market particularly dow 30 index could experience  correction in afternoon but may may bounce back. These predicted indications are stronger for  nasdaq index. ( there is lack of clarity of dow index overall performance in first 2 hours of trade).

 

Diamond index fund shorted in two lots at $ 81.98 and $ 82.20( total 60k shares) on Kaching trading site account

Book profits: Indian stock market Prediction - Intra day for july 13, trade 59

Nifty now down over 68 points.

 

35 puts purchased  at average price of Rs 141

 

Exit at current profit of Rs 20 per lot on all lots. Total profits between 30000- 34000 after brokerage

 

Prediction as posted at 1.25 pm

 

 

 

Nifty now down only about 48 poin, sensex down 152 points. Market may go down again in late  afternoon possibly sharply.

 

Buy 15 Nifty 4000 puts at Rs 145 ( days lowest so far is 148) and another 20 puts at Rs 137. exit if loss per lot is Rs 15.Protect profits after gain of Rs 20 with trailing stop loss of Rs 5.

 

Usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies( no weekly prediction will be posted thsi week)

 

Indian stock market Prediction - Intra day for july 13, trade 59

Nifty now down only about 48 poin, sensex down 152 points. Market may go down again in late  afternoon possibly sharply.

 

Buy 15 Nifty 4000 puts at Rs 145 ( days lowest so far is 148) and another 20 puts at Rs 137. exit if loss per lot is Rs 15.Protect profits after gain of Rs 20 with trailing stop loss of Rs 5.

 

Usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies( no weekly prediction will be posted thsi week)

 

Review: Indian stock market predictions for the week July 6-10,2009

As seen in the weekly nifty chart,

 

1 Shorting and holding till wednesday was hugely profitable (also read july month prediction)

 

2. Going long on thursday would have given profits on friday as on all calloptions highest premium on friday was higher than thursday closing value.( rise of 50 nifty points on friday is dwarfed by sharp afternoon fall)

 

3.However trend inspite of all weekly choppiness and volatility was downward and best strategy would have been to short and hold till end of week

 

 

Weekly Prediction as posted last week (below)
 

Weekly prediction july 6-10 Indian stock markets

 

There is no clear upward or downward trend for the week . However Market( after a positive start) may correct strongly and then resume upward movement amidst intra day and intra week choppiness and volatility.

 

Short index(nifty/sensex)  and hold till mid week

 

Take long position not earlier than thursday since on friday markets may bounceback( at least on intraday basis)

 

read monthly prediction for july below

 

usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 8, trade 58

As seen in the intra day chart and prediction for the day, dow hit a low in afternoon (twice) and then bounced  back. A gain of $ 53,000 from shorting . However no trade was carried out for second half of the prediction

 

 

Prediction as posted in opening minutes today

US index dow 30 up 24 points. US market( dow 30 index)  may follow no consistent direction but hit a low point in afternoon. Could rise towards end of the day.

 

Diamond index fund(ETF)  1 lacs shares shorted at $ 81.76 and another lot at limit price of $ 82.60. Profits to be protected after gain of $0.80 with traling limit of $ 0.15

 

 

Trade 57: profit of $23,000. However total portfolio is now up only 5.3% as we couldnot exit carrying stocks of Diamond index fund in a falling market over last 3-4 days

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 8, trade 58

As seen in chart market has corrected after hitting a high of +60 points, with gains of $53,000 on first 100k shares.

 

Prediction as posted in opening minutes today

US index dow 30 up 24 points. US market( dow 30 index)  may follow no consistent direction but hit a low point in afternoon. Could rise towards end of the day.

 

Diamond index fund(ETF)  1 lacs shares shorted at $ 81.76 and another lot at limit price of $ 82.60. Profits to be protected after gain of $0.80 with traling limit of $ 0.15

 

 

Trade 57: profit of $23,000. However total portfolio is now up only 5.3% as we couldnot exit carrying stocks of Diamond index fund in a falling market over last 3-4 days

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 8, trade 58

US index dow 30 up 24 points. US market( dow 30 index)  may follow no consistent direction but hit a low point in afternoon. Could rise towards end of the day.

 

Diamond index fund(ETF)  1 lacs shares shorted at $ 81.76 and another lot at limit price of $ 82.60. Profits to be protected after gain of $0.80 with traling limit of $ 0.15

 

 

Trade 57: profit of $23,000. However total portfolio is now up only 5.3% as we couldnot exit carrying stocks of Diamond index fund in a falling market over last 3-4 days

Indian stock market predictions for the week July 6-10,2009

Weekly prediction july 6-10 Indian stock markets

 

There is no clear upward or downward trend for the week . However Market( after a positive start) may correct strongly and then resume upward movement amidst intra day and intra week choppiness and volatility.

 

Short index(nifty/sensex)  and hold till mid week

 

Take long position not earlier than thursday since on friday markets may bounceback( at least on intraday basis)

 

read monthly prediction for july below

 

usual risk /responsibility disclaimer applies

Indian and US stock market predictions

Indian market Intra day predictions

 

From now on Intra day prediction for Indian stock markets will be given only on days where predictions are considered low risk.Absence of predictions however should not be deemed as indication of  high risk trading on such days. Profit on all trades unless otherwise mentioned must be protected when clear profit of Rs 5 is made .

 

weekly prediction for Indian market may be given this week. This wil help to corrorborate monthly prediction for the initial phase July.

 

US market intra day predictions: US market predictions will be given more frequently but high risk predictions will be tagged .

Indian stock market prediction for july 2009

Indian Stock market prediction for July 2009:

No single consistent trend is seen for this month. Market will tend to bounceback after every correction with at least one correction that may be much significant than others and may follow as early as mid-to end of next week.

There is greater indication of sharper correction in Nifty

Disclaimer: all predictions carry risk and risk is entirely borne by person using these predictions

Review: Indian Stock Markets -Prediction for June

See the monthly chart for June and prediction below. Key point is the sharp correction predicted in mid phase of mont large profits that could have been made by shorting as recommended. It is not clear if index made any monthly gains( starting value for june 1 is not same as closing value on may end)

 

June Month prediction as posted on June 2(below)

 

 

June month is again likely  to see gains in the indices.. However the market is likely to witness its worst phase in mid june ( approx 10-20). After which upward movement of markets may resume.

 

short index by mid of next week which should become profitable by /before 20th june(approx).

 

 

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for july 1 trade 57

See the intra day chart and prediction below. Profit/loss deatils to be given later.

 

Prediction as Posted for July 1

 

 

Dow index up 68 points in eary trade.

 

US market may see day's low point in afternoon and then rise up. ( there is possibility of two corrections in a volatile market) but positive closing is likely

 

Both long and short position created-short positions if executed will be closed by afternoon.( in future we will restrict/ avoid stock related trades for day trade purposes on Kaching account and stick to Diamond ETF which is highly  correlated with Dow movement)

US market Prediction - Intra day for july 1 trade 57

Dow index up 68 points in eary trade.

 

US market may see day's low point in afternoon and then rise up. ( there is possibility of two corrections in a volatile market) but positive closing is likely

 

Both long and short position created-short positions if executed will be closed by afternoon.( in future we will restrict/ avoid stock related trades for day trade purposes on Kaching account and stick to Diamond ETF which is highly  correlated with Dow movement)

US market Prediction - Intra day for juny 1 trade 57

Dow index up 68 points in eary trade.

 

US market may see day's low point in afternoon and then rise up. ( there is possibility of two corrections in a volatile market) but positive closing is likely

 

Both long and short position created-short positions if executed will be closed by afternoon.( in future we will restrict/ avoid stock related trades for day trade purposes on Kaching account and stick to Diamond ETF which is highly  correlated with Dow movement)

Review: US market Prediction - Intra day for June 30

See the intra day chart and prediction( without trade)

 

Profit and loss on last two trades on Kaching account

 

Trade 56: pure day trading profit about $65-70,000

Trade 55: Loss (only day trading loss) about $ 3k

 

Total value of porftfolio is now $10.6million approximately( as a result of trades carried out but not posted on the blogs), almost  same as account which was abandoned

Todays market prediction is high risk and hence no trade will be carried out.

 

 

 

US market may open positive as biz news indicates. however at some point ( possibly end of day) dow index may give up all /any gains of the day .

 

details of profit /loss on last two trades wil be given later